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Is China-Taiwan War even Possible?


Credit: https://news.usni.org/2021/08/17/taiwanese-official-say-islands-freedom-key-to-stable-indo-pacific

After the cold war ended, the US became the global superpower in both military and economic. China military was considerably weak and underpowered that cannot be complete with the West. Today, the rise of China in the 21st century including economic and military power has prompted major concern for small states and competitive states in the region. China’s powers aim to improve regional stability and economic growth (Bernstein & Munro, 1997). Air intrusion usually occur in Taiwanese's air space that triggers diplomat and political tension between Taiwan and China. In early October, China conducted the largest air intrusion over Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. The military aircraft squadron included several type of aircrafts such as bombers, fighters and surveillance aircraft. In response, Taiwan Air Force scrambled fighter jets to intercept the Chinese warplanes. This is not the first time for Taiwan to encounter this incident. For a decade, China has sent out its military aircrafts and warships to Taiwan that signal its military strength and muscle to Taiwan (Pickrell, 2021).

From Beijing's perspective, Taiwan is a part of China, the Beijing government under Xi Jinping vows to seek for unification by diplomatic means and military force if needed. However, Taiwan believes that The Republic of China is a sovereign state and it is not a part of China, it is another independent state. Politically, the US did not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state because China would cut ties with the US if the US recognizes Taiwan as a state. Nevertheless, over the past decades, the US has sided with Taiwan militarily and economically to provide supports through military and technology sharing. More importantly, Taiwan realizes that the US is the strategic partner that it sell key military equipment such as missiles, fighter jets, advance radar and senor to Taiwan (“China-Taiwan Tensions,” 2021). Modern equipment can delay and defend the Chinese invasion until the reinforcement arrives. However, a full-scale invasion on Taiwan is feasible since Taiwan geographically small and an island.

The international community expresses worriedness and fearfulness about the possible conflict between China and Taiwan. The military confrontation could spark economic erosion and unsteady relations among states. The conflict could cause the collapse of international exchange rate and international trade. The United States is acting as a protective actor and closed ally in the Asia-Pacific region. The US military has thousands of troops and military aircraft in nearby areas such as Guam, South Korea and Japan that are ready for military combat. Those military bases are the flexible centre points for the military aids, supplies, fuels, and ammunitions.

Taiwan is a key partner to the US in economic sector. Taiwan is also the ninth trading partner with the United States. As reported by Statista chart, it shows that Taiwan is accounted for 58 Billon U.S dollars in 2020. While, China remains the third largest importer and exporter with the US (Loesche, 2020). Geographically, Taiwan is located in a strategic location for the United States military. The military bases in Taiwan serve as the stationary base for US navy and aircrafts to refuel. In addition, the strait of Taiwan allows the US military to monitor and track the Northeast civilian and military activities in the region.

Recently, Biden administration officially made arms deal with Taiwan that worth more than 750 million U.S dollars. The arms deal include howitzers and high-tech munitions kits. These weapons are believe to defend the shore invasion by Chinese military. Moreover, it also increases the military readiness and boosts confidence to Taiwanese troops in the battlefield (Thrall et al., 2021). In 2020, Taiwan also made a deal with the US on arms sale. The $1.8 billon dollars arms sale covers of three major weapons such as rocket launchers, sensors and artillery. The arms sale is crucially important for Taiwanese military to hold the shoreline against the Chinese invasion (“US Approves $1.8bn Weapons Sale to Taiwan,” 2020).


This article is written based on personal thought which does not represent any organization or institute. I believe that this paper does not have editor to review and edit contents and written language. Therefore, I completely acknowledge there are several flaws in this paper.


References

Bernstein, R., & Munro, R. H. (1997). The coming conflict with America. Foreign Affairs, 18–32.


China-Taiwan tensions: Xi Jinping says “reunification” must be fulfilled. (2021, October 9). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58854081


Loesche, D. (2020, November 4). Infographic: America’s Most Important Trading Partners. Statista Infographics. https://www.statista.com/chart/10942/top-us-trading-partners-for-goods/


Pickrell, R. (2021, October 4). China sent 52 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense zone in its largest show of force yet. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-military-aircraft-toward-taiwan-in-largest-show-of-force-2021-10


Roy C Lee, L. & Chung-Hua. (2021, July 6). Taiwan’s China dependency is a double-edged sword. East Asia Forum. https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/07/06/taiwans-china-dependency-is-a-double-edged-sword/

T

hrall, A. T., Cohen, J. B., & Klare, M. (2021, August 17). New arms sales send the wrong signal on Taiwan. Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/08/17/new-arms-sales-send-the-wrong-signal-on-taiwan/


US approves $1.8bn weapons sale to Taiwan. (2020, October 22). BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54641076

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